作者：韦忠和

这几天新闻上出现很常见的一个词：Ponzi scheme。美国华尔街传奇人物、纳斯达克股票市场公司前董事会主席伯纳德·麦道夫11日晨因涉嫌“庞氏骗局”证券欺诈遭警方逮捕。检察人员指控他通过操纵一只对冲基金给投资者损失大约至少500亿美元。

Ponzi scheme 到底是怎么回事呢？查了相关资料，解释如下：

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that involves paying abnormally high returns to investors out of the money paid in by subsequent investors, rather than from the profit from any real business. It is named after Charles Ponzi. A Ponzi scheme has similarities with a pyramid scheme though the two types of fraud are different.

It usually offers abnormally high short-term returns in order to entice new investors. The perpetuation of the high returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises (and pays) requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors in order to keep the scheme going.

The system is destined to collapse because there are little or no underlying earnings from the money received by the promoter. However, the scheme is often interrupted by legal authorities before it collapses, because a Ponzi scheme is suspected and/or because the promoter is selling unregistered securities. As more investors become involved, the likelihood of the scheme coming to the attention of authorities increases.

The scheme is named after Charles Ponzi, who became notorious for using the technique after emigrating from Italy to the United States in 1903. Ponzi was not the first to invent such a scheme, but his operation took in so much money that it was the first to become known throughout the United States. His original scheme was in theory based on arbitraging international reply coupons for postage stamps, but soon diverted later investors’ money to support payments to earlier investors and Ponzi’s personal wealth. Today’s schemes are often considerably more sophisticated than Ponzi’s, although the underlying formula is quite similar and the principle behind every Ponzi scheme is to exploit investor naïveté. However, it has been shown that entering a Ponzi scheme can be rational even at the last round of the scheme if a government will likely bail out those participating in the Ponzi scheme.

用一句话来揭示“庞氏骗局”，就是“拆东墙补西墙”或“借钱还钱”。施骗人以超乎常规的畸高回报吸引投资者，然后用新投资者的钱偿付老投资者，造成高额回 报兑现的假象，再诱骗投资者连本带利继续投资。如此不断往复，雪球越滚越大，参与者越来越多，受骗资金也累积不断增长，施骗人得以从中牟取非法暴利。

“庞氏骗局”得名于一个名叫查尔斯·庞兹的意大利商人。庞兹1903年从意大利移民到美国，1920年开始从事投资欺诈，短短半年间便从一个默默无名的穷商人，变成波士顿家喻户晓的百万富翁。

庞兹的骗术就是向投资者宣扬国际间邮票的套利交易，他向投资者承诺45天将给予50%的回报，90天则将“让你的投资翻番”。事实上，庞兹的手法就是将新投资者的钱，偿付给前期投资者以及进入自己的腰包。

由于前期投资者“的确”获得巨大的投资回报，便到处予以宣扬，于是更多新投资者携带现金纷至沓来。最终，共有约4万人投资1500万美元，当骗局被戳穿时，只有约三分之一的资金偿还给投资者。

如今的“庞氏骗局”已比庞兹的骗术复杂得多，但基本原理还是相通的。首先，施骗人会向投资者描绘一个“听上去很美”的投资方式，如“全球货币套利”、“避险期货交易”、“高回报离岸投资”等，伴随30天20%高回报的承诺诱惑。

由于没有过往业绩的证明，最初只会有一小部分的投资者受骗，投入金额不会很多。当30天后收到本金外加20%的利息后，尝到甜头的投资者会有更多动力投入更多的钱，并口口相传引来更多投资者。

显而易见，整个行骗过程并没有实质的利润产生，投资者的回报完全是后来者新资金及自己扩大再投资带来的钱。当投资者D投入资金后，他的钱被当作“利润”偿付给投资者A、B、C，而当投资者X、Y、Z被骗进后，他们的钱又能用来偿付投资者A到投资者W。

为最大限度地降低资金链绷断的风险，施骗人会想方设法减少投资人的资金赎回，如规定一个较长期限的冻结期，这样施骗人就能有充足的时间吸引新投资者“入瓮”。

骗局终有被戳穿的一天，主要是有三方面的原因：施骗人携款潜逃；规模超负荷，新资金增速放缓，承诺回报偿付出现问题，导致越来越多投资者要求赎回；行骗手法暴露，司法机关介入调查，发现所谓的企业资产根本不存在。

莫道夫事件败露，缘自一个新的直接导火索，即这场百年一遇的全球金融危机。